Oil prices tumbled more than 15% and global stock markets surged Wednesday after President Trump announced a conditional two-week ceasefire with Iran, pulling back from his threat to destroy Iranian civilization just hours before his own deadline.
Brent crude oil plunged to below $92 per barrel while US crude fell to under $94, marking the steepest daily decline since the COVID-19 pandemic. Stock markets rallied worldwide, with the Dow Jones jumping over 1,000 points and European indices posting gains of 3-5%.
I agree to suspend the bombing and attack of Iran for a period of two weeks... subject to the Islamic Republic of Iran agreeing to the COMPLETE, IMMEDIATE, and SAFE OPENING of the Strait of Hormuz
Donald Trump — Social media post
The ceasefire agreement came less than 90 minutes before Trump's Tuesday evening deadline, when he had threatened that "a whole civilisation will die tonight" without Iranian compliance. Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi responded that Tehran would accept the ceasefire if attacks were halted, confirming safe passage through the strait would be possible.
The Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20% of global oil flows, has been effectively blockaded since the US-Israeli attacks on Iran began February 28. The waterway's closure sparked a global energy crisis that pushed gasoline prices above $4 per gallon in the United States and severely disrupted Middle Eastern oil and gas supplies.
NPR frames the story through the lens of market volatility and investor uncertainty, emphasizing the whiplash effect of Trump's rhetoric on global markets. The outlet focuses on economic impacts over geopolitical strategy, reflecting American concerns about domestic energy costs and market stability during the crisis.
The BBC emphasizes the conditional nature of the ceasefire and questions about its durability, reflecting British diplomatic skepticism about quick fixes to complex Middle Eastern conflicts. Their coverage highlights the global economic implications while maintaining distance from both American and Iranian positions.
The Economic Times focuses primarily on market movements and oil price impacts, reflecting India's position as a major energy importer concerned about supply disruptions. Their coverage emphasizes economic rather than political dimensions, consistent with India's non-aligned foreign policy approach to US-Iran tensions.
Despite the dramatic market relief, oil prices remain substantially elevated from pre-conflict levels of around $70 per barrel. Energy infrastructure across the Gulf region has sustained damage during the month-long conflict, which analysts say will complicate any swift return to normal operations.
Only if the US or Iran walk away from the ceasefire completely and bombing restarts do we see the oil price potentially surging back to the highs of this week above $110 per barrel
Kathleen Brooks, Research Director — XTB
Market volatility has whipsawed investors throughout the conflict as hopes for de-escalation alternated with fears of broader regional war. Reuters reported that investors placed $950 million in bets against oil prices just hours before the ceasefire announcement, suggesting some anticipated the diplomatic breakthrough.
The fragility of the agreement became apparent as prices recovered from their lows amid reports of continued Israeli strikes on Lebanon and allegations of ceasefire violations. Maritime monitors confirmed only two ships had passed through the strait since Iran agreed to reopen it, far below normal traffic levels.